The Populist Awakening on AI
An unlikely coalition
The proposed 10-year state moratorium on AI regulation may prove to be one of the big strategic missteps in the "politics of AGI." It has awakened a new, populist coalition.
Just two days ago, the Teamsters' President came out in opposition. This unlikely alliance now includes Marjorie Taylor Greene, Josh Hawley (a consistent advocate against big tech), Bernie Sanders, Marsha Blackburn. And not even just the populists: Ron DeSantis, Ted Lieu ("Once in a century that I agree with Marjorie Taylor Greene, and this is one of those times.")
Earlier this year, the new Pope has come out swinging against the runaway risks from AI, including on worker's dignity. If the Vatican weighed in on US politics, they'd probably oppose too.
In April, I wrote in an essay in Unherd that this "populist right" faction was "dormant in formal policy circles but vocal in the cultural landscape."
Now, it feels like they have awakened. The MAGA movement, at least for the moment, is having a moment.1
However, what my essay missed is that this third faction includes all populists, not just the populist right.
I'll add the relevant analysis in a quote from the essay below.
This faction splits into two sociologically distinct but overlapping groups. The religious traditionalists — Catholics, Protestants and Evangelicals — fundamentally reject Silicon Valley’s quest to create “machine gods”. To them, this represents not merely technological hubris but potential heresy. They question whether humans should attempt to construct intelligences exceeding our own capabilities — a modern Tower of Babel disconnected from Biblical values...
The second group — workers traumatised by globalisation and the ramifications of the NAFTA trade deal — seeks a better vision for automation than the previous waves, which devastated manufacturing communities. Trump’s base won’t tolerate another generation of workers discarded by technological change. Groups like American Compass represent their interests, demanding AI deployment that strengthens rather than displaces the middle class. Even so, we’ll only see these effects later: AI will affect cognitive work before it affects physical work...
These two factions find common ground in the New Right’s broader opposition to war and global entanglements. If superintelligence development continues unchecked, the populists will fear a Cold War with China, potentially triggering a Taiwan invasion and disrupting peaceful American life — precisely the scenario Trump promised to avoid.
From a sociological perspective, they see AI’s development as being driven by young, well-paid, liberal Californian engineers racing to build machine gods — while risking both American lives and livelihoods. And after witnessing existing technology’s destruction of family values and youth culture, they fear that AI will do further damage, constraining freedoms while concentrating power in government and tech firms.
As we get more powerful AI systems, the populist Right is likely to become more comfortable with government intervention to protect their lives and livelihoods. The populists will push for law and order policies — “AI agents must follow the law” — while advocating for populist measures to limit automation’s impact. Such measures might include requirements of human oversight; taxation of computational activity; and pro-union regulations.
We'll see how it stands as a prediction for the political moment to come.
EDIT: As of this morning, the state pre-emption has been struck from the BBB. Perhaps will be remembered as the first populist victory on AI.
See, eg. the tariffs (but then the reversal), the international student deportations, and the revocation of the Harvard F-1s. Now Elon's exit, and the Big Beautiful Bill. Why?
Perhaps secret congress is failing. Because all of the actions of the government are being blasted at all times (lots of this administration is extremely transparent — eg. the President's almost live tweeting of the Iran bombing, and subsequent diplomacy). The elite can't make policy in quiet, and they therefore reflect the actions of the masses. Or the populist message has really resonated. Trump is executing on what he said he is going to execute on, and is messaging it extremely well. And the cultural fit between the tech right and the MAGA movement was never strong anyway, and the tensions were always there.